Forecasting vegetable prices on the basis of the markov chain model

Abstract

Mathematical modeling of random events is an important part of stochastic analysis. Stochastic
models have been developed by analyzing the change in prices over time in different sectors of the
economy. This is increasingly reflected in the processes of buying and selling stocks in the stock markets. In
the course of the research, data on vegetable prices in the markets of the Republic for 2011-2017 were
collected. Price variation by day was analyzed. Although pricing and management in agricultural markets
may seem complicated, it is possible to forecast consumer market prices over time based on the marking
chain model. In the course of the research, the prices of vegetables in the farmers' markets and wholesale
markets of the Republic were observed. The study identified the potential for gains or losses, as well as high
gains or losses, mainly as a result of price changes. The price changes of several types of vegetables were
considered and their price changes were analyzed. Based on the results of the analysis, a model for transition
period prices, stable prices and average recurring prices was developed.