Impact Of Interest Rate Movement On Indian Stock Market Indices

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of Interest rate (10-year T-bill rate) on the stock market Index in India. The period covered in this study is from 2005 to 2018. Using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, the underlying series are tested as non-stationary at the level but stationary in the first difference. The Granger causality test reveals bidirectional relationships. There is bidirectional causality between interest rate and stock market index (Nifty 50 and Nifty Midcap 100). Hence, predicting stock price via changes in interest rates becomes possible and this can aid economic forecast, planning, and growth. The major conclusion of this study is that impact of interest rates cannot be ignored in accounting for the dynamics of stock market behavior in Nigeria. We, therefore, recommend the adoption of appropriate macroeconomic policies that are favorable to the stock market index (a proxy for stock prices), and this in turn will stimulate the growth of the stock market in India.