Reducing Hydrological Model Uncertainity inRainfall RunoffModelling in Geba Watershed, Ethiopia

Authors

  • Abebe Temesgen Ayalew, Ankit Chakravarti, Mesfin Amaru

Abstract

The main purpose of simulation of flow at gauged Geba watershed and evaluating its model uncertainty which affects correct accurate prediction. Rain fall runoff modeling was usedforevaluatingstream flow of the study area and its model uncertainty by using Monte Carlo Simulation principles. The model performance with in the simulation period for (R2) and (ENS) is found to be 0.76, 0.73 and 0.75, 0.72 for calibration and validation respectively. On the other hand for the uncertainty is about 40% for calibration and 34% for validation, which indicates there is uncertainty throughout process. Uncertainitywas used and tested with a performance index  ENS of 0.78 for standardization and 0.8 for confirmation. New hydrological insights for the region The estimated amount of flow 955.33MCM was determined with in the final output of the model.

Published

2020-02-29

Issue

Section

Articles