Prediction Of The Conditions For The Climate Changes, On The Basis Of Physicochemical Modelling

Authors

  • Valery A. Skvortsov

Abstract

Prediction of climate change on the planet on the basis of physicochemical (thermodynamic)
modeling of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere from natural and anthropogenic sources has
allowed us the new, in contrast to previous research, to approach the solution to this problem and adjust equity
contribution of the main gases in global warming. A thermodynamic simulation of the emission of carbon,
methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbon in the surface layer of the atmosphere has been carried out up
to a height of 500 m at an average temperature of the Earth,
s surface of 150C and in lower layers of the
troposphere at a height of up to 2 km at a temperature of 30C and corresponding pressures of 1013.25 and 790
hPa. It was ascertained that the planetary temperature might rise to 18.150C by 2100 with an increase in the
CO2 concentration by two times in the surface atmosphere; with allowance for the additional contribution of
CH4, to 19.420C; with allowance for N2O, to 20.080 C; and with allowance for all gasses put together, including
chlorofluorocarbons and water vapor, to 22.680C. In the lower troposphere, with an increase in CO2, the
temperature might rise to 4.630C; with an additional contribution of CH4, to 5.830 C; with allowance for N2O,
to 6.500C; and with allowance for all gases, including chlorofluorocarbons and water vapor, to 7.910C.

Published

2020-04-30

Issue

Section

Articles