A Research of COVID-19 Transmission Based on the V-SEIR Model

Abstract

Based on the traditional SEIR model, the V-SEIR model is designed. From the perspective of system theory, this research uses the system dynamics method and combines the idea of the "silo" model to design the V-SEIR model. We consider the impact of the people after vaccinated both in the susceptible and the incubation period. Based on the simulation data, parameter values were fitted and the transmission of COVID-19 after considering vaccination was studied, and then the effect of different validity period of vaccine and the proportion of vaccinated people on the transmission of the COVID-19 was analyzed. According to the V-SEIR model, the following conclusions are drawn: the peak in the number of infected persons was significantly reduced relative to the original SEIR model after consideration of the vaccine. The longer the validity period of the vaccine, the greater the decline in the number of infected persons, the greater the proportion of vaccinated persons and the shorter the time period of transmission of the infection. Based on this, we put forward the following suggestions: speed up the vaccine development process and try to extend the validity period of the vaccine, do a good job in vaccine publicity work to increase the willingness of the audience to vaccinate, pay attention to checking the effect of vaccination.