Prediction of the Peak Value of Carbon Emission Dynamic Policy Scenarios and Study on Emission Reduction Potential in Shaanxi Province ----- Verification based on Environmental Kuznets Curve

Abstract

— Exploring the potential of carbon emission reduction can tap carbon value effectively and integrate regional development strategy. Based on the IPCC recommended method, this paper estimates the total carbon emissions of Shaanxi Province from 1995 to 2017, introduces seven driving factors, such as gross national product, carbon intensity, energy structure and energy intensity, and decomposes the total carbon emissions through the expandable stochastic environmental impact assessment (STIRPAT) model. In addition, the high carbon, benchmark and low-carbon policy scenarios and carbon emission forecasts in Shaanxi Province from 2018 to 2040 are carried out, and the “Kuznets Curve” of different policy scenarios is verified. The results show that the carbon emission of Shaanxi Province increased from 20528800 tons in 1995 to 286.8603 million tons in 2017, and industrial production is the main carbon emission source. The Environmental Kuznets curve exists under the baseline and low-carbon scenarios. The high carbon scenario and the baseline scenario have the emission reduction potential of 59.1721 million tons and 41.642 million tons respectively. In the future carbon emission reduction work, we should promote the energy structure adjustment actively, and broaden the development path of high-tech industry and service industry constantly.