Empirical Research and Forecast on the Influencing Factors of China's Tax Revenue--Based on multiple regression combination model

Abstract

Taxation, as the main way for the country to obtain income, is an important activity to ensure the normal performance of its functions. Analyzing the influencing factors of China's tax revenue, predicting China's tax revenue, and carrying out annual economic budget activities for all countries in the world, and rationally arranging their own economic development are of important guiding significance. By consulting relevant literature and economic theory, we found that public budget expenditures, the output value of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries are closely related to China’s tax revenue. Therefore, the EVIEWS software is used to select the above variables to establish a multiple regression model to quantitatively evaluate the factors affecting China's tax revenue, and use this model with the ARIMA model to predict China's future tax revenue. The research results show that agricultural output value has the greatest correlation with China's tax revenue. China's tax revenue will reach 18 trillion yuan in the next three years, and the economy will continue to grow.